Allison explains that this is because of Thucydide’s Trap, a pattern of structural stress caused when a rising power challenges a ruling one. He warns that the countries need to escape this in order to avoid a war.
His book explains:
The world has never seen anything like the rapid, tectonic shift in the global balance of power created by the rise of China.
China’s economic development is transforming it into a formidable political and military competition.
He calls China a “serious political enemy” to the US.
While he says war between the two countries appears unlikely, “the centennials recalling World War 1, however, have reminded us of man’s capacity for folly".
Allison says war between the two countries in the decades ahead is “more likely than not”.